CDS-KNRaj Library

Updates from K.N. Raj Library, CDS, Thiruvananthapuram

Emerging economy business cycles:Financial integration and terms of trade shocks

by Rudrani Bhattacharya; Ila patnaik and Madhavi Pundit NIPFP Working Paper no.120, March 2013 This paper analyses the extent to which nancial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a small open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that [...]

Growth-Cycle Nexus

KODAMA Masahiro Discussion Papers No.387 February 2013 This research sheds light on the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle in less developed economies. Whereas many previous studies explain the negative correlation from a viewpoint in which business cycle affects economic growth, we attempt to present a hypothesis based on the other influence direction [...]

MEASUREMENT AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONIZATION: A SPECTRAL APPROACH

by Pami Dua CDE Working Paper no.224, January  2013 This paper examines the issue of international synchronization of cycles. Using spectral methods we analyze the pattern of co-movement (coherences) of growth rate cycles between countries across frequency bands and overtime. We also examine the lead-lag structure (phase shifts) of country cycles obtained from spectral methods [...]

Comovement in business cycles and trade inintermediate goods

by Madhavi Pundit NIPFP WP n0. 2013-116, January 2013 Positive correlation between intermediate goods trade and business cycle comovement raises the question of causality. Existing theories propose the direction from trade to comovement, but don’t explain positive correlation of trade with TFP comovement, also in the data. My model predicts both positive correlations, and explains [...]

Has India Emerged? Business Cycle Stylized Facts from a Transitioning Economy

by Chetan Ghate; Radhika Pandey and Ila patnaik ICRIER Working Paper No.260, June 2012 This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950-2010. We show that most macroeconomic variables are less volatile in the post reform period, even though the volatility of macroeconomic variables is still high and [...]

Unemployment Benefits or Taxes: How Should Policy Makers Redistribute Income over the Business Cycle?

Susanne Ek Discussion Paper No. 6308 January 2012 This paper studies optimal unemployment benefit levels and optimal proportional income tax rates over the business cycle. Previous research suggests that policy makers should make unemployment insurance (UI) dependent on the business cycle because the UI system canbe used to  smooth consumption across different economic states. However, [...]

BUSINESS AND GROWTH RATE CYCLES IN INDIA

by Pami Dua and Anirvan Banerji CDE WP No.210 ,January 2012 This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the [...]

The nature of financial and real business cycles: The great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality

Balázs Égert and Douglas Sutherland OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 938, 2012 This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, [...]

Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour

by Krittika Banerjee RBI WPS (DEPR): 22/2011, December 2011 Procyclicality in the flow of credit has been a factor underpinning the magnified amplitudes of boom and bust phases of the business cycle, particularly in bank dominated financial systems. This paper studies the leadlag pattern in the interaction between credit and growth cycles of India at [...]

PREDICTING RECESSIONS AND SLOWDOWNS: A ROBUST APPROACH

PAMI DUA and ANIRVAN BANERJI CDE Working Paper No. 202 This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is [...]

Trans-Pacific Economic Relations and US-China Business Cycles: Convergence within Asia versus US Economic Leadership

Andrew Hughes Hallett and Christian Richter No. 292 June 2011 This paper tests the hypothesis that the links and leadership/dependency relationships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US), and the other large Asian economies have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialization of the PRC economy. We use time-varying [...]

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Fernando Alvarez-Parra, Luis Brandao Marques, and Manuel Toledo IMF WP/11/133\ June 2011 This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatile as income for both developed and emerging market [...]

Bank Relationships, Business Cycles, and Financial Crisis

Galina Hale Working Paper: 2011-14 Date: May-2011 Recent literature argues that the structure of a banking network is important for its stability. We use network analysis to formally describe bank relationships in the global banking network between 1980 and 2009 and analyze the effects of recessions and banking crises on these relationships. We construct a [...]

Real Time Business Conditions Index:A Statistically OptimalFramework for India

Dipankar Biswas, Nivedita Banerjee Abhiman Das W P S (DEPR) : 3 / 2011 RBI WORKING PAPER SERIES The state of the real economy evolves in a continuous fashion. Economic agents and policy makers, while making decisions in real time, require accurate and timely understanding of the state of real activity. In the light of the [...]

Has India Emerged ? Business Cycle Stylized Facts from a Transitioning Economy

Chetan Ghate , Radhika Pandey and Ila Patnaik Working Paper 2011-88 April 2011 This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950 – 2009. We nd that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India’s liberalisation reforms in 1991. In particular, after the the mid [...]

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